Random Thoughts | Aye Wonder

Belichick is still A-Ok in AWT

On 11.17.09, In Aye Wonder Tuesday, By Mike

I am really struggling to write on a regular basis. It’s odd because I thought that was going to change since I am no longer involved with Endway. I have far more time in principle but somehow that isn’t the case. For the moment, it seems like I am consigned to one random thoughts dump here on AWT and that’s it. Perhaps it will change soon but I can’t predict it. Rather than write any more about not writing anymore, lets get going here. It’s Tuesday after all.

☞One thing that I think might benefit a lot of musicians is if I publish the strategic plan that I put together for Endway. It is forward thinking, comprehensive and it addresses the new music industry. It is not a blueprint for every band or musician though every band or musician will be able to take something from it to adapt to their own unique circumstances. One thing that I will say is this; forget about selling your music. It’s small potatoes in a big potatoes game. Selling albums at a merch table or on iTunes is missing the entire point of the new music paradigm. Get the music in the hands of the consumer and they will tell you quickly if you’re good enough to make a living making music. Look for the game plan later this week. AND good luck.

☞I don’t deny that I suffer fools badly. It is one of my worst personality traits. This is why Sarah Palin makes me miserable. Now, I don’t think she is dumb by any stretch of the imagination. But I think she’s missing the point that most people are interested in her because they want to be around to see the fiery crash when it happens. And it will happen. Today, her new book hits the shelves and I believe it will show that the Emperor has no clothes.

☞Today’s song is a favorite of mine from the Proclaimers. You likely know the Proclaimers from their huge hit called I’m Gonna Be (500 Miles). The brother duo Craig and Charlie Reid were once thought of as the Scottish Everly Brothers for their ease with melody and their good-natured songs. Today’s song, a Letter From America, is about those left behind in Scotland and how much they miss their friends who immigrated to America. It’s a forlorn tale of missing a friend or family member. My ex-pat friends must love/hate this song. I love it because it is so emotional.

I’ve looked at the ocean
Tried hard to imagine
The way you felt the day you sailed
From Wester Ross to Nova Scotia
We should have held you
We should have told you
But you know our sense of timing
We always wait too long
When you go will you send back
A letter from America?
Take a look up the railtrack
From Miami to Canada.

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☞How about this breaking news: Tokyo now has more 3-star Michelin restaurants than Paris! Tokyo’s sheer size has something to do with it. But if you’re comparing apples to apples or in this case, Big Apple, New York has 4 3-star Michelin restaurants to Tokyo’s 11. Paris has 10, by the way. Ladies and Gentlemen, the new gastronomic capital of the world, Tokyo.

☞For those of you who look at the stock market hitting new 2009 highs and think how is this possible? Here’s my opinion. Two things are at work here but one overrides everything. First of all, interest rates are at historic lows. That makes everything else better from an investment perspective. Secondly, the uncertainty is gone. Yes, our economy is still in the dumps but now we know why and as a result, we can deal with it. You may have heard this old saw before but it really is true; Wall Street knows how to deal with bad and good news. If there is uncertainty, look out below. Simple but true.

☞I feel like I have to say something about Bill Belichick’s seemingly knucklehead-ed decision to go for a first down on fourth and 2 from his 28 while leading by 6 points with 2:08 to play against the Indianapolis Colts. Instinctively, everyone is asking why would you do it? BUT if you look at the empirical evidence, it’s not so clear cut. This is from a website called advancednflstats.com and it’s difficult to argue with their logic.

New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You’d have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats’ 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it’s pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

I think we have to let this one go in the Coach’s favor though every bone in my body still hurts from the result of his decision. At least, the decision itself wasn’t as flawed as all of us would like to think.

☞Just an aside, it seems to me that every where I look on TV, there is a British actor. Hugh Laurie, the irascible Doctor House, may have created this mini-British Invasion but he’s hardly alone. Tim Roth plays Cal Lightman on Lie to me, Joseph Fiennes is an FBI officer on FlashForward, Jared Harris is in Mad Men and the beat goes on. Some are playing Brits but others like Laurie, have our accents down cold. Apparently the word is that it is mostly driven by economics. British actors and actresses are cheaper than their American counterparts. And some say they are easier to work with and can act their way around the competition!

By the way, if you’re unfamiliar with Laurie before he came to the US, watch this brilliant comedic piece from the BBC show Fry & Laurie.

☞Lastly, today’s AWT quote of the week is our version of The Secret. If success is what you crave, put this one on your fridge.

If you are failing to plan, you are planning to fail.
~Many

And that is AWT for today.

I sit here and aye wonder.
What about you?

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Post Marathon, Aye Wonder Tuesday

On 04.21.09, In Aye Wonder Tuesday, By Mike

Is it Tuesday already? Goodness. If you live in Boston, you no doubt know that the Marathon was in town yesterday. That’s upwards of 26,000 official runners and their friends and families coming into town. That means it’s time to party. I’ve long said that Boston is a drinking city with a sports problem and yesterday proved it once again. The cash registers never stop ringing for bars and restaurants at or near key viewing points of the race. Nothing comes close to Marathon Monday with the possible exception of New Year’s Eve. It makes for a very long Tuesday. Trust me.

While Marathon Monday’s Tuesday hangover prevented me from writing earlier, I am here with the regularly scheduled Aye Wonder posting. Some of my random thoughts may be muddled (like one of the drinks I had yesterday) but I trust you will make sense of them. So here goes.

☞When he pitched in Boston, I loved him but when he left I saw Roger Clemens for what he is. Now, the world will get another look at him through the soon to be published book entitled American Icon: The Fall of Roger Clemens and the Rise of Steroids in America’s Pastime. Sports Illustrated is publishing an excerpt from the book that will undoubtedly raise further talk of Clemens’ lies to a Congressional committee. I wouldn’t want be him.

Can you help me? I can’t inject in my booty.

Those were the fateful words that began the friendship between legendary pitcher Roger Clemens and the trainer who would ultimately betray him, Brian McNamee.

☞I want to say I don’t believe in torture but something inside of me asks this question: If the balance of the country’s stability and safety can be upheld by getting information from one person, would I torture to get that info? I would have a difficult time saying no, I think. I know it is inhumane but a terrorist attack of innocent people is more inhumane. Is this a simple case of two wrongs don’t make a right?

☞Geez Norm. Haven’t you had enough appeals by now? Apparently Norm Coleman doesn’t think so because he is now appealing a lower court ruling from last week that awarded the Minnesota senate seat to Al Franken. Minnesota has been underrepresented now for 4 months because of Coleman. I would be willing to bet that if the election were held again, Coleman would lose in a landslide because all throughout the process, he has put his own interests ahead of the interests of the Minnesotans. People generally don’t like that.

☞I had a great laugh when I read this story. It reminded me of the time that there was a bank robbery in a Massachusetts north shore community and police were waiting for the criminal when he got home to Charlestown. Apparently, the genius thug was wearing his Charlestown High School football jacket when he perpetrated the robbery in full view of the bank’s surveillance cameras.

☞A week ago, I never heard of Shawn Lee. Now, I can’t stop listening to his new album, Shawn Lee Presents Soul in the Hole. It’s amazing to me that Lee recorded this album in this decade. It has such an authentic 70’s soul sound with some electronics thrown in. Have a listen to the same titled opening song and see if you agree. WOW.

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☞If you live in Boston or plan to visit, make certain the new Lansdowne Pub is on your dance card. It is a brand new Irish Pub with a 67 foot long bar. They will be serving traditional food and lots and lots of beers including 2 Guinness taps. The fixtures are stunning and they will have live bands starting this Friday night. Endway does a residency there for 5 weeks. Here’s the poster. (of course, it’s a self-serving post!)

☞In my effort to keep it real here, I found this video about waterboarding. The journalist bets he can endure 15 seconds of waterboarding. Its not difficult to watch but it is enlightening.

☞And lastly today’s Aye Wonder quote is from Michael Levin, philosophy professor at City University of New York. He writes in favor of torture here.

There are situations in which torture is not merely permissible but morally mandatory.

Aye wonder about this.

And I am certain you do too.

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Tagged with: Al Franken • America; • American Icon • bank • bank robbery • Booty • Boston • Brian Mcnamee • Charlestown • Charlestown High School • City University of New York • Congressional Committee • electronics • Excerpt From • Fateful Words • Food • Goodness • Hangover • http://www.ayewonder.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/01-soul-in-the-hole.mp3 • Irish Pub • Journalist • Lansdowne Pub • legendary pitcher • Marathon • Massachusetts • Michael Levin • Minnesota • Minnesota senate • New Year's Eve • Norm • Pastime • philosophy professor • Random Thoughts • Roger Clemens • Runners • Shawn Lee • Sports Illustrated • sports problem • Steroids • Terrorist Attack • Time To Party • Two Wrongs • Upwards

RTT is Now AWT

On 10.21.08, In Music, Politics, Presidential Candidates, Random Thoughts, Technology, By Mike

One of the things I liked about my collaborative blog with my brother Phil, was the way you could look at it and know what you were going to read about. I want to give that a test run here. Random Thoughts Tuesday is now Aye Wonder Tuesday (AWT) and if you see the icon to the left, you’ll know what you’re getting. I’m thinking of adding some other things that will appear on a scheduled basis. If it becomes too cumbersome or routine for me, it will disappear faster than Whitey Bulger at a Milan street fair. Your comments, both supportive and critical, are always welcomed. And without further adieu, your first AWT.

☞I am against the stringent limitations on executive salaries for the now partially government owned financial companies. There is no doubt that $500,000 is a lot of money but it won’t go far if you are expected to bring the bank big business through your social acquaintances and friendships. I think compensation should be tied to a multiple of average employee wages. That way management does well if its employees do well. And the only way that the employees do well is if the financial institution does well. And repeat. We want these banks to be profitable so that we can get our money back from the rescue plan but do we want to attract low quality management because compensation isn’t competitive?

☞In the summer of 1962, two weeks before the Beatles recorded their first single, Brian Epstein, the Beatles’ manager, told Pete Best that he was being replaced on drums by Ringo Starr. While Best wasn’t happy about his dismissal, he was being fired from a “basement” band not the rock and roll superstars that the Beatles would become. Best continued to play drums for bands around the Liverpool area and sporadically recorded. This September, at age 68, Best “recorded” a Beatles album. It is not a Beatles album from their early days when Best was involved but rather a psychdelic pop album that reminds one of the Revolver, Sgt. Pepper and Magical Mystery Tour days. It’s an uneven effort but it is so Beatles-like, I am willing to overlook its spottiness. Have a listen to Best’s Everything I Want and the Beatles’ Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds. They sound like they are from the same album.

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☞I love reading about technology that is working its way into the mainstream. Recently, I read about “Buckypaper” a carbon based material that is as thin as tissue paper but when stacked is 500 times stronger than steel. It also disperses heat like brass or steel and conducts electricity like silicon. This material may ultimately show up in aerospace, automobiles, integrated circuits and a host of other applications. Here’s more on Buckypaper.

☞A fortnight remains before the election and I am gobsmacked by how divisive it has become. John McCain and (especially) Sarah Palin have done everything they can to drive a wedge between the red states and blue states despite their protestations to the contrary. I said in my letter to America that we are fighting another civil war in this great country albeit without munitions. It gets worse daily. Why can’t we all get on the same page? Partisanship is killing us.

☞In professional sports, if you have outlived your usefulness, measured by the sport’s appropriate benchmarks, you are exiled. I think Jason Varitek, the Boston Red Sox catcher may fall into this category. He is a tremendous leader and knows how to handle a pitching staff but the post-season American League Championship Series was not his finest moment. Varitek had 1 hit in 20 at bats leaving 17 men on the bases. It is difficult to overlook a shortcoming like this when hitting is a very important attribute in baseball. Here’s the Captain barely able to face reporters after the Red Sox game 7 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays.

☞As a former mutual and hedge fund manager, I have to say Andrew Lahde’s farewell to the business was um….different. Lahde wrote a scathing farewell letter where he dismissed his rivals as over-privileged “idiots” and traders as “stupid.” It’s quite an extraordinary goodbye to a business that made Lahde millions. He closes his letter with an out of context appeal for the legalisation of marijuana. Read the entire letter here.

☞The above story reminds me of Aye Wonder’s quote of the week without the admonishment.

I have made noise enough in the world already, perhaps too much, and am now getting old, and want retirement. ~Napoleon Bonaparte

☞Starting tomorrow and every Wednesday thereafter, I am going post a single photo that struck me in some way over the past seven days. As a lead in to that, take a peak at this one. It’s Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin holding a baby chick at an agricultual fair. To me, this screams out, “I need a caption.” Would you be so kind?

☞Anyone read any good books lately?

☞This may come as no surprise to you, the Environmental Working Group (odd name) released a report that said tap water is at least as good if not better than most bottled water. I think they are likely to be right. Want to save some money and save all those plastic bottles from the landfill? Buy a tap filter.

☞And finally, last Friday another great RnB icon passed away. Levi Stubbs, the lead singer of the Four Tops, finally succumbed to cancer after an eight year illness. Stubbs was remarkable in that he checked his ego at the door and kept the Four Tops’ lineup intact for 44 years. I am not sure any other band can say that. Stubbs’ baritone voice will be remembered forever. Here’s my favorite Four Tops song. RIP Levi Stubbs.

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Aye Wonder.

And so should you.

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Tagged with: Awt • Basement Band • Beatles Album • Beatles Manager • Brian Epstein • Brother Phil • Collaborative Blog • Employee Wages • Executive Salaries • Financial Institution • Four Tops • Levi Stubbs • Liverpool Area • Low Quality • Magical Mystery Tour • Milan Street • Myster • No Doubt • Pop Album • Quality Management • Random Thoughts • Ringo Starr • Social Acquaintances • Vladimir Putin • Whitey Bulger

Your RTT Rescue Package has Arrived

On 10.14.08, In Movies, Music, Photo, Photo Hunt, Photo Hunter, Photography, Politics, Presidential Candidates, Quote, Random Thoughts, Technology, Video, By Mike

Recently, I have been chastised by friends and family that my blog is no longer upbeat. Sometimes, they say, it can be downright depressing. This caused me to take a hard look at my recent musings. In the past month I wrote the Dear America and the A Very Sad Day for Our Country postings that weren’t depressing as much as they were pragmatic. And I got a lot of (unnecessary) consoling telephone calls about my Photo Hunter Sad theme post about Hamilton Hall. There was also the I am Calling Bullshit post that may have slanted slightly negative. But that’s it. Oh, and maybe 1 or 10 posts lambasting John McCain and Sarah Palin but I am sure that’s all for the negative posts. Hmmm. Well, what do you want? It’s not all blue skies and rainbows all of the time, is it now?

This Random Thoughts Tuesday will attempt to tie a bowtie on a pig (not a Sarah Palin reference) and be full of smiles. That work for all of you? Let’s start by announcing a contest winner, shall we?

☞The winner of the Aye Wonder Gratuitous Contest is….Steve from New York. His name was selected randomly by an online service know for doing such things. Stephen wins the 53 favorite albums of my life. Hopefully, he will find one or two that he will enjoy.

☞You’ll never believe this but a Unicorn just ran by my window. WOW! That made my day.

☞I read last week that a Chinese restaurant opened in Baghdad. It is still not clear whether General Petraeus’ Chicken will be on the menu.

☞On another Middle East related subject; I finally can say Ahmadinejad in a sentence without botching it. I don’t know why it’s taken so long. I have always been able to spell it.

☞I don’t know if you’ve noticed but the negative campaigning for President seems to have subsided. That has to be good, right?

☞If the good Lord’s willin’ and the creek don’t rise there is a good chance Michael Douglas will reprise his role as Gordon Gekko in a Wall Street sequel. Not being negative here but the studio’s timing is quite good.

☞I find this week’s Aye Wonder quote very prescient. It was recited by the character Gordon Gekko in 1987’s Wall Street.

The richest one percent of this country owns half our country’s wealth, five trillion dollars. One third of that comes from hard work, two thirds comes from inheritance, interest on interest accumulating to widows and idiot sons and what I do, stock and real estate speculation. It’s bullshit. You got ninety percent of the American public out there with little or no net worth. I create nothing. I own. We make the rules, pal. The news, war, peace, famine, upheaval, the price per paper clip. We pick that rabbit out of the hat while everybody sits out there wondering how the hell we did it. Now you’re not naive enough to think we’re living in a democracy, are you buddy? It’s the free market. And you’re a part of it. You’ve got that killer instinct. Stick around pal, I’ve still got a lot to teach you.

Forgot about that one didn’t you?

☞On another entertainment related note, beginning on October 20th, Beatle Ringo Starr will no longer sign any fan related requests. Can’t blame him. He needs a Ticket to Ride at age 68. But if you absolutely must get something signed, get your letter postmarked by the 20th and send your request here:
Ringo Starr
1st Floor
90 Jermyn Street
London SW1Y6JD
UK

Peace and Love.

☞I am always listening to new music. It makes me happy! I came across this cool indie pop band out of Miami called The Postmarks. This week’s Aye Wonder song of the week is The Postmarks’ ethereal version of Bob Marley’s Three Little Birds from their new album By the Numbers.

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☞Back in April, I told you about John Kanzius who has likely made a breakthrough in cancer research. Kanzius, a former radio technician and no college degree, came up with this piece of brilliant research using his wife’s pie pans and hot dogs. It sounds crazy but Penicillin was a mistake too. Watch this video and visit the 60 Minutes web site for more. This is the ultimate good news story.
‘

☞Look. Despite seeing a unicorn, a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and countless other Lucky Charms today, I remain a realist. Normally, that attitude is filled with optimism. These days it is not. We have serious problems in a wide variety of areas that require thought, consideration, sacrifice and action. I am just reporting it as I see it. As I say, usually my view is through rose coloured glasses. Just because it isn’t all rosy these days doesn’t mean I am not happy (triple negative is a positive!). I am happy. But there is work to do. Who among you is with me?

Aye Wonder.
And so should you.

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Tagged with: Blue Skies • Bowtie • Chinese Restaurant • Contest Winner • Dear America • Good Chance • Gordon Gekko • Hamilton Hall • John McCain • Michael Douglas • Negative Campaigning • Negative Posts • Photo Hunter • Random Thoughts • Sad Day • Sad Theme • Sarah Palin • Telephone Calls • Wall Street Sequel • Willin

Random Thoughts Tuesday, Yes It Is.

On 09.23.08, In Advice, Barack Obama, Baseball, Blogging, Boston, Business, Drinking, Economy, Election, Financial, Football, George Washington, Golf, Happiness, Health, Life, Money, Music, Patriots, Personal, Politics, Presidential Candidates, Quote, Random Thoughts, Real Estate, Red Sox, Video, Voting, Wall St., By Mike