I am really struggling to write on a regular basis. It’s odd because I thought that was going to change since I am no longer involved with Endway. I have far more time in principle but somehow that isn’t the case. For the moment, it seems like I am consigned to one random thoughts dump here on AWT and that’s it. Perhaps it will change soon but I can’t predict it. Rather than write any more about not writing anymore, lets get going here. It’s Tuesday after all.
☞One thing that I think might benefit a lot of musicians is if I publish the strategic plan that I put together for Endway. It is forward thinking, comprehensive and it addresses the new music industry. It is not a blueprint for every band or musician though every band or musician will be able to take something from it to adapt to their own unique circumstances. One thing that I will say is this; forget about selling your music. It’s small potatoes in a big potatoes game. Selling albums at a merch table or on iTunes is missing the entire point of the new music paradigm. Get the music in the hands of the consumer and they will tell you quickly if you’re good enough to make a living making music. Look for the game plan later this week. AND good luck.
☞I don’t deny that I suffer fools badly. It is one of my worst personality traits. This is why Sarah Palin makes me miserable. Now, I don’t think she is dumb by any stretch of the imagination. But I think she’s missing the point that most people are interested in her because they want to be around to see the fiery crash when it happens. And it will happen. Today, her new book hits the shelves and I believe it will show that the Emperor has no clothes.
☞Today’s song is a favorite of mine from the Proclaimers. You likely know the Proclaimers from their huge hit called I’m Gonna Be (500 Miles). The brother duo Craig and Charlie Reid were once thought of as the Scottish Everly Brothers for their ease with melody and their good-natured songs. Today’s song, a Letter From America, is about those left behind in Scotland and how much they miss their friends who immigrated to America. It’s a forlorn tale of missing a friend or family member. My ex-pat friends must love/hate this song. I love it because it is so emotional.
I’ve looked at the ocean
Tried hard to imagine
The way you felt the day you sailed
From Wester Ross to Nova Scotia
We should have held you
We should have told you
But you know our sense of timing
We always wait too long
When you go will you send back
A letter from America?
Take a look up the railtrack
From Miami to Canada.
☞How about this breaking news: Tokyo now has more 3-star Michelin restaurants than Paris! Tokyo’s sheer size has something to do with it. But if you’re comparing apples to apples or in this case, Big Apple, New York has 4 3-star Michelin restaurants to Tokyo’s 11. Paris has 10, by the way. Ladies and Gentlemen, the new gastronomic capital of the world, Tokyo.
☞For those of you who look at the stock market hitting new 2009 highs and think how is this possible? Here’s my opinion. Two things are at work here but one overrides everything. First of all, interest rates are at historic lows. That makes everything else better from an investment perspective. Secondly, the uncertainty is gone. Yes, our economy is still in the dumps but now we know why and as a result, we can deal with it. You may have heard this old saw before but it really is true; Wall Street knows how to deal with bad and good news. If there is uncertainty, look out below. Simple but true.
☞I feel like I have to say something about Bill Belichick’s seemingly knucklehead-ed decision to go for a first down on fourth and 2 from his 28 while leading by 6 points with 2:08 to play against the Indianapolis Colts. Instinctively, everyone is asking why would you do it? BUT if you look at the empirical evidence, it’s not so clear cut. This is from a website called advancednflstats.com and it’s difficult to argue with their logic.
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You’d have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats’ 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it’s pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.
I think we have to let this one go in the Coach’s favor though every bone in my body still hurts from the result of his decision. At least, the decision itself wasn’t as flawed as all of us would like to think.
☞Just an aside, it seems to me that every where I look on TV, there is a British actor. Hugh Laurie, the irascible Doctor House, may have created this mini-British Invasion but he’s hardly alone. Tim Roth plays Cal Lightman on Lie to me, Joseph Fiennes is an FBI officer on FlashForward, Jared Harris is in Mad Men and the beat goes on. Some are playing Brits but others like Laurie, have our accents down cold. Apparently the word is that it is mostly driven by economics. British actors and actresses are cheaper than their American counterparts. And some say they are easier to work with and can act their way around the competition!
By the way, if you’re unfamiliar with Laurie before he came to the US, watch this brilliant comedic piece from the BBC show Fry & Laurie.
☞Lastly, today’s AWT quote of the week is our version of The Secret. If success is what you crave, put this one on your fridge.
If you are failing to plan, you are planning to fail.
And that is AWT for today.
I sit here and aye wonder.
What about you?
Possibly Related Posts:
- Time for an AWT Good News Edition
- A New Decade AWT – I Feel Better Already
- AWT is on the Record
- The Decade in Review – The AWT version
- An Old Year’s AWT. The New Decade on its Way.